Seasonality of the Lyme disease risk & effects of a warming climate

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Sunny

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This study by Sen Li et al, was conducted in Scotland, but global warming is well, global, so here we go:

Temperature can change the risk for Lyme disease*, because heat has an altering effect on the questing behaviour of the ticks as well as their development. These in their turn change the contact pattern and pathogen transmition from tick to animal/human.

With their study they calculated that indeed, six weeks after the last heat peak of the summer (so in early autumn) the risk of Lyme disease was higher.
They stipulate that prolonged heat seasons can increase the duration of tick questing season (which is the season with the highest contraction chance) and expand the risk on areas that are of higher altitude, where these areas didn't used to be as hot in the summer and autumn.

*(In the study and generaly speaking the risk factor for the disease is calculated by investigating what percentage of nymphal ticks are infected.)

Source: "Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland"

by Sen Li, Lucy Gilbert, Paula A. Harrison, Mark D. A. Rounsevell

published on: Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2016 13 20160140; DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0140. Published 30 March 2016
 
The affects of global warming are interesting on places like the northern half of the USA and Europe. Not just with Lyme Disease and the change of cycle of the life of the tick, but also with many mosquito born illnesses which can now migrate much further north. Because of global warming, more tropical diseases will be making their way all the way up to North Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky.

But as far as Lyme, I think the reality will be that the tick will simply migrate. Organisms generally take hundreds or thousands of generations before drastic changes in their sustainable life-cycle can take place. It is much more likely the ones who are in areas that are no longer compatible with their current life cycle will just not be able to breed there, meanwhile ticks on the northern border of the previous zone will have no problem breeding and spreading even further north. Right now the main zone is in the mid-atlantic states and then west of the great lakes. As global warming picks up, expect to see Canada and New England start to be the hot zones.
 
Organisms generally take hundreds or thousands of generations before drastic changes in their sustainable life-cycle can take place. It is much more likely the ones who are in areas that are no longer compatible with their current life cycle will just not be able to breed there, meanwhile ticks on the northern border of the previous zone will have no problem breeding and spreading even further north. Right now the main zone is in the mid-atlantic states and then west of the great lakes. As global warming picks up, expect to see Canada and New England start to be the hot zones.

Indeed, this is a very reasonable migration dynamics estimation. Basically they spread wherever their capability to survive allows them. Weaker (unadapted geneticaly) sub-populations perish and leave room for to more climate-compatible sub-populations.
 
Indeed, this is a very reasonable migration dynamics estimation. Basically they spread wherever their capability to survive allows them. Weaker (unadapted geneticaly) sub-populations perish and leave room for to more climate-compatible sub-populations.

The problem really lies in when they are able to breed in a new area, say for instance southern canada... but then at the same time some natural predators are not there yet, so the tick not only now can breed there, but it also won´t face obstacles like it did where it previously came from.

This is what happened with the Boa Constrictors in the Everglades. They were able to find areas where the climate was natural for them, and they were able to breed, and at the same time they didn´t have any of the natural predators they did back home, and also their own prey is not adapted at avoiding them so they are able to feed much easier than they did in their native lands.

I am going to bet that there will be some species of mammal from southern canada that the tick will learn to infect, and that mammal will have serious issues because they have no defenses against it. Evolution is like an arms race that occurs over thousands of years, but with climate warming, the pace gets drastically shortened and it is easy for one side to fall behind.
 
Naturally when the weather is better and we go to the wilderness more that's when we are more prone to get it, so we need to be careful in those situations.
 
Wow, this kind of articles are so interesting because they make you see how big the impact of global warming is. I mean, it's amazing how many different areas are affected thanks to it. It's really scary! I mean, as if rising sea levels and drought weren't enough of a concern, now we have to worry about this.
 
Because of global warming, more tropical diseases will be making their way all the way up to North Carolina, Tennessee and Kentucky..

But for that Is needed a noticeable increase in Temperature across those regions.



Organisms generally take hundreds or thousands of generations before drastic changes in their sustainable life-cycle can take place. It is much more likely the ones who are in areas that are no longer compatible with their current life cycle will just not be able to breed there, meanwhile ticks on the northern border of the previous zone will have no problem breeding and spreading even further north. Right now the main zone is in the mid-atlantic states and then west of the great lakes. As global warming picks up, expect to see Canada and New England start to be the hot zones.

That's true. Even the slightest change could take several hundreds of generations. Globally speaking, Climate changes its behaviour constantly thus forcing life forms to take some important measures to cope with it. If we could predict ticks migration and breeding, is possible to anticipate the risk of lyme disease in certain areas.
 
But for that Is needed a noticeable increase in Temperature across those regions.





That's true. Even the slightest change could take several hundreds of generations. Globally speaking, Climate changes its behaviour constantly thus forcing life forms to take some important measures to cope with it. If we could predict ticks migration and breeding, is possible to anticipate the risk of lyme disease in certain areas.

Migration happens quickly. If southern Canada becomes warmer, it will only take a few years until the tick has fully migrated to enjoy the climate it enjoys the most.

What will take much longer is for the tick to learn to enjoy more tropical areas.
 
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