This study by Sen Li et al, was conducted in Scotland, but global warming is well, global, so here we go:
Temperature can change the risk for Lyme disease*, because heat has an altering effect on the questing behaviour of the ticks as well as their development. These in their turn change the contact pattern and pathogen transmition from tick to animal/human.
With their study they calculated that indeed, six weeks after the last heat peak of the summer (so in early autumn) the risk of Lyme disease was higher.
They stipulate that prolonged heat seasons can increase the duration of tick questing season (which is the season with the highest contraction chance) and expand the risk on areas that are of higher altitude, where these areas didn't used to be as hot in the summer and autumn.
*(In the study and generaly speaking the risk factor for the disease is calculated by investigating what percentage of nymphal ticks are infected.)
Source: "Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland"
by Sen Li, Lucy Gilbert, Paula A. Harrison, Mark D. A. Rounsevell
published on: Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2016 13 20160140; DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0140. Published 30 March 2016
Temperature can change the risk for Lyme disease*, because heat has an altering effect on the questing behaviour of the ticks as well as their development. These in their turn change the contact pattern and pathogen transmition from tick to animal/human.
With their study they calculated that indeed, six weeks after the last heat peak of the summer (so in early autumn) the risk of Lyme disease was higher.
They stipulate that prolonged heat seasons can increase the duration of tick questing season (which is the season with the highest contraction chance) and expand the risk on areas that are of higher altitude, where these areas didn't used to be as hot in the summer and autumn.
*(In the study and generaly speaking the risk factor for the disease is calculated by investigating what percentage of nymphal ticks are infected.)
Source: "Modelling the seasonality of Lyme disease risk and the potential impacts of a warming climate within the heterogeneous landscapes of Scotland"
by Sen Li, Lucy Gilbert, Paula A. Harrison, Mark D. A. Rounsevell
published on: Journal of the Royal Society Interface, 2016 13 20160140; DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2016.0140. Published 30 March 2016